Monday, 15 August 2011

2011 England Riots: Statistics of Ethnicity

Contact email: humstats@gmail.com
Update, 20th August: sample size increased from 48 to 173 for London, from 98 to 247 for Birmingham, from 37 to 117 for Manchester, from 29 to 32 for Bristol. The ethnic pattern did not experience significant change (see below).

Very short summary:
1. Over 50% rioters are black,  below 30% are white;
2. Black people are over 10 times more likely to participate in riots than whites;
3. High unemployment in London -> riots?
4. Black areas -> riots?
5. Low social class != riots, low training !=riots;
6. Black areas = high unemployment;
7. High unemployment + black areas = riots;
8. High unemployment + non-black areas = no riots;

9. Average or low unemployment + black areas (rare) = riots, but fewer

1. CCTV in 2; 2. CCTV, data in 2; 3. map in 1D; 4. map in 1A; 5. maps in 1B, 1C; 
6. map in 1E-; 7. maps in 3E; 8. maps in 1E, map in 3B; 9. map in 1E-2



Introduction

The media seem to focus exclusively on the social class of the August rioters, while claiming the absence of a large ethnocultural undercurrent. There is an excessive concentration on 'chavs' or 'yobs', who are understood to be white. However, chavs form but a minority of rioters and looters, while the disproportionate majority is Black African and Afro-Caribbean. This will be illustrated below using authoritative sources, in three arguments.

Methods
1. Distribution of ethnicity and other factors in London. I will show the distribution of riots and addresses of the arrested on the following maps of London: a. Black African and Afro-Caribbean population; b. Education, skills and training; c. Social class; d. Unemployment; e. Combined map of ethnicity and unemployment.


No significant correlation was found on B and C. D and especially A show a stronger correlation. However, that may be because of a large tie between A and D. The best result is with E, which predicts riots with formidable precision.


2. Ethnicity of riot suspects on police CCTV by percentage. I will examine all available photographs on the official police CCTV sources to determine the ethnic make-up of rioters. I will then compare the proportions of ethnicities to the total population.


Photographs show that most (~50%) rioters were black even in areas with a small black population, such as Bristol. There is a vast overrepresentation of Black British among rioters in comparison to their total percentage in a city. Their likelihood of participating in riots in comparison to whites is more than 10 times higher. Ethnicities are marked to ensure verifiability.


3. Black population and chance of riots in London boroughs and large settlements. I will substantiate the preceding arguments with additional data showing: a. London boroughs by black population and riots; b. 20 largest settlements, their black population and riots; c. Unemployment and riots alongside the list of the largest settlements.


This shows that black population is greatly indicative of the chances of riots both in London boroughs and in settlements. The total size of the settlement does seem to influence the chance of riots, as in the case of Nottingham or Glasgow. Albeit in London unemployment was found to have a fairly strong correlation with the riots, that is not the case with the UK. Many non-rioting areas had very high unemployment (parts of Scotland, NE England, S. Wales, N. Ireland, etc.), but all of them had a minor black population.

1. Race over unemployment over education and class
Maps of riots and addresseses of rioters, taken from The Guardian and The Daily Telegraph as of 13th August, are superimposed on maps from LondonProfiler by UCL.

a. Black Africans and Afro-Carribeans. No riots occurred in areas that were far away from large concentrations of black population. Most of the areas with a large black population witnessed the heaviest riots that included multiple arsons.

b. Not the underskilled. The primary characteristic of the underclass, specifically 'chavs', is the absence of education, skills and training. This map shows a clear lack of any correlation between riots and these factors. Large areas in the east and especially the west of London such as Hillingdon are undereducated, but saw no riots. The south central areas are more skilled, but had riots.

c. Not the lower classes. 'Chavs' are generally associated with the lower class - in fact, some believe the concept itself to be classist. Yet, as with education, there are large lower class areas such as Havering that saw no riots. While there are few riots in the more well-off areas, some of the most devastated large areas, such as Croydon, were not lower class. 

d. Unemployed, perhaps. The underclass is inevitably unemployed. The east, north-west and west extremes show reasonable employment, thus excluding the most extravagant outliers in the above cases. The south still does not fit well, however. Unemployment appears to be the best purely socioeconomic correlate of riots.

e. Reason: black and unemployed, or just black. Areas with a high black population and high unemployment (light green) dominate all other black areas (cyan and light gold). Almost all riot addresses fall within the vicinity of light green zones. Though black areas with normal employment are a minority, they also are covered by the rioters, if to a smaller degree. White/cyan areas experienced riots.

Most areas with a low black population have lower unemployment. However, it is important to note that isolated dark green areas - non-black, but with high unemployment - have no riots. A particularly vivid example of it is Tower Hamlets, whose poor non-black populace separates two large rioting zones. This map explains the absense of riots in the extreme east and their presence in the south.

It is impossible to predict the riots using the class and the skill maps, and even unemployment is highly imprecise. The ethnic map is the best predictor of riots.

2. CCTV shows the majority of rioters are black
Police CCTV pictures of suspects in the 3 largest riots: London (1,051 arrested), Birmingham (218 arrested, 445 for West Midlands), Manchester (47 arrested, 174 for Greater Manchester). Bristol (24 arrested) is an example of a riot in a smaller settlement.

The size of the samples is adequate: 173 for London, 218 for Birmingham, 117 for Manchester, 32 for Bristol. The ratio of ethnicities remains similar in images published by the police after 13th August. Nottinghamshire (106 arrested) and Merseyside (77 arrested) CCTV images are not clear enough to be assessed, but seem to show a large black contingent as well.

The ethnic map shows impressive predictive power, and it is possible to confirm this argument empirically. In London, Birmingham and Bristol whites form a minority of rioters: respectively 27%, 30%, and 25%. Only in Manchester do they constitute the majority - 45%. Manchester also has the largest percentage of non-white, non-black people participating. Black people are not only overrepresented, but simply outnumber everyone else by a large degree: 50%, 45%, and 47% - though only 28% in Manchester. Even if all white rioters were from the underclass, which is unlikely, 'chav' rioters would still be far fewer than black rioters. Indeed, it may be suggested that the 'chavs' joined the ongoing lootings, but did not instigate them, as in this video from Manchester: a black gang breaks into the shop, then mixed passers-by run in.

This table sums up the collections of all CCTV pictures available from police departments as of 20th August 2011.

CCTV images with race of the suspects marked:
London: http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/m499/HumStats/UKRiots/CCTV_LondonMet.jpg
(full-sized police pictures: http://www.flickr.com/photos/metropolitanpolice/)
Birmingham: http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/m499/HumStats/UKRiots/CCTV_Birmingham.jpg
(full-sized police pictures: http://www.west-midlands.police.uk/latest-news/majoroperations/operationview/#glry)
Manchester: http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/m499/HumStats/UKRiots/CCTV_Manchester.jpg
(full-sized police pictures: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gmpwanted)
Bristol: http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/m499/HumStats/UKRiots/CCTV_Bristol.jpg (AF and AC seem to be the same person)
(full-sized police pictures: http://www.avonandsomerset.police.uk/newsroom/bristol-disorder/index.aspx)
All on one image: http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/m499/HumStats/UKRiots/All_Cities.jpg


London example (thumbnail):


3. UK and London areas with a small black population did not riot
An analysis of cities and London boroughs by black population and chance of rioting. A map of UK unemployment to illustrate the lack of correlation.

 a. Non-black London boroughs did not riot. This graph demonstrates that the likelihood of rioting increases dramatically with the percentage of black population. Rioting in Brent was expected, but was prevented by the community and large police presence. Rioting in Bromley appears mild or non-existent, while in Woolwich (Greenwich) it was underreported in the media. Westminster reflects the incident at Oxford Circus, which involved a mob of 50.


b. Non-black settlements UK-wide did not riot. The riot threshold of black population is lower for large settlements than for boroughs, as it means they include smaller areas with large black population (e.g., London has Haringey). Consequently, Nottingham's 4.7% matters. One of the theories was that all large cities would experience riots because they follow similar patterns, but that is not the case. Large cities with a small black population did not riot.

c. Highly unemployed non-black settlements did not riot. (see the figure for B) Unemployment was shown to be the single best socioeconomic correlate of riots in London, better than education or class, but that was because it was an aspect of black communities. The UK has large areas with high unemployment that have a small black population. There were no disorders there.

Conclusion
Both theoretical and empirical evidence shows that it is improper to disconnect the August 2011 riots from race and ethnic culture. It is, likewise, inappropriate to associate it with the uneducated, low-skilled white lower class ('chavs'). It was severely underrepresented in the riots, and did not produce riots in numerous poor non-black areas. None of the socioeconomic factors have the same predicting power as black ethnicity in this case. In fact, they are largely meaningless to the riots when not a correlate of black population.

Why the black community played such a prominent role in the riots may be disputed. But it is clear that role of the black community was greater than that of any other group, and it should be accordingly regarded in the media.

Sources
Maps
Maps of ethnicity, education, class and other factors in London: http://www.londonprofiler.org/
Suspected addresses map: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...urt-cases.html
Riots map: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datab...-listed-mapped
UK map of unemployment by date: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Police CCTV images (updated 13th August)
Metropolitan Police suspects: http://www.flickr.com/photos/metropolitanpolice/
West Midlands Police suspects: http://www.west-midlands.police.uk/l...operationview/
Greater Manchester Police suspects: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gmpwanted
Avon & Somerset Constebulary suspects: http://www.avonandsomerset.police.uk...der/index.aspx

Data on ethnicity
London ethnic groups by borough: http://legacy.london.gov.uk/gla/publ...-estimates.pdf
Other cities: http://neighbourhood.statistics.gov....do?pageId=1001

36 comments:

  1. Extremely interesting, and the results certainly are the type to make the media squirm. The thing is, only with an honest assessment of the riots can we begin finding actual solutions. Obviously something is angering the black community in London--black leaders should be at the forefront of finding out why that is the case. My wish is for everyone to be less angry, regardless of their race.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Africa for Africans. Asia for Asians. White countries for EVERYBODY!

    Everybody says there is this RACE problem. Everybody says this RACE problem will be solved when the third world pours into EVERY white country and ONLY into white countries.

    The Netherlands and Belgium are just as crowded as Japan or Taiwan, but nobody says Japan or Taiwan will solve this RACE problem by bringing in millions of third worlders and quote assimilating unquote with them.

    Everybody says the final solution to this RACE problem is for EVERY white country and ONLY white countries to “assimilate,” i.e., intermarry, with all those non-whites.

    What if I said there was this RACE problem and this RACE problem would be solved only if hundreds of millions of non-blacks were brought into EVERY black country and ONLY into black countries?

    How long would it take anyone to realize I’m not talking about a RACE problem. I am talking about the final solution to the BLACK problem?

    And how long would it take any sane black man to notice this and what kind of psycho black man wouldn’t object to this?

    But if I tell that obvious truth about the ongoing program of genocide against my race, the white race, Liberals and respectable conservatives agree that I am a naziwhowantstokillsixmillionjews.

    They say they are anti-racist. What they are is anti-white.

    Anti-racist is a code word for anti-white.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bull fucking shit. All the coverage I saw it wad nothing but white

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  4. Brade, indeed, anger is never the answer. There were no riots in Brent, for example (though there are arrestees from the area) - something was done right there (well, it might be the strong police presence). Dagenham was quiet as well, though there were major riots nearby.

    It sometimes seems the only way to discuss the problem is through very far-fetched and inaccurate euphemisms now (youths, unemployed, council housing), or even through blaming a different group altogether (chavs). However, some objective information is always valuable, even if one can't use it directly.

    BLACKA, but that is precisely the point. The media are using selective photographs - observe the lack of earlier mob photos which are adequate samples. The police are using all photographs they have available.

    Guardian of White Children, I think you are being too radical ('final solution'? 'genocide'?). It is true that it is reasonable to decrease unskilled immigration, but there is no need to put it into such confrontational terms. Your wording seems more offensive then your message.

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  5. Back in the mid '60s there was very little written for teenagers from a Caribbean background that teachers and librarians could get hold of. One useful writer was Andrew Salkey who wrote children's books, set in the West Indies, based around dramatic events likely to occur there. Their tiles were 'Earthquake','Hurricane', 'Drought' and 'Riot'.

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  6. "How long would it take anyone to realize I’m not talking about a RACE problem. I am talking about the final solution to the BLACK problem?"

    God has a final solution for you, rather guarding children or not you lunatic.

    The point is HumStats, that this was white people looting and burning London while Black people got the blame. Just go see who was arrested for all of this. The Black population of UK is 6 or 7%, so that would mean that every Black person there was rioting or damn near.

    wallyUK, I don't know if your being cute or making the point that this white supremacist Salkey should have been burned in one of those building? I'll choose the latter.

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  7. BLACKA, that wouldn't mean every black person was rioting at all. There were only about 5000 rioters at worst, and the black population is well over 500 000. They would have been a drop in the total populace even if all of them were black.

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  8. Someone's clearly got too much time on their hands. The percentage of Black people who took part in the riots compared to the total number of Black people living in London is so small it would indicate to most sensible people that it's not a 'Black' issue. Coupled with the fact that people of other backgrounds were rioting, most sensible people would dismiss race as an issue and look for the underlying, unifying cause. It would also be interested to know how the hooded rioters were classified, the mixed race ones, and the large numbers of people that were not easily identified by CCTV.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed! And I live near to one of the areas and was well aware of the racial demographic on the day. I am surprised at the lengths some people will go to for their own perceived self authority.

      I think it wont take an intelligent person long to realize this "study" was loosely put together on assumptions & bias
      (Complete implication that black skin is the root problem, black people are poor because their stupid, and other Eugenicist propaganda..) With outright misrepresentations (lies that the Metropolitan Police has released these figures).

      I was just Google'ing this to see what bullshit people were coming up with in the aftermath. Because even on the day I noticed the news crews chasing after any black people they could find.. But the live pictures told the real truth.

      I remember the image of a young 'white' girl (no more than 16) smashed bottle in hand leading a charge against a police shield wall on mare street!!

      And even I had to get close to the screen before I realized that many that I thought were black were wearing hoodies & scarfs and in fact were not!

      So I'm not surprised by this.. apart from the fact someone would waste their time coming up with this bullshit. The use of CCTV assumptions, or going by the record of arrests makes this flawed. The lie these figures are from the police themselves makes this highly suspect!

      Only a retard who is also a racist will take this seriously.. And to be honest you can tell them anything!

      I think I've given this blog enough of my time!

      Delete
  9. Susie Cro, only a minority of any group participated in the riots, except perhaps for gangs. Using your approach, Brixton riots in 1981 were not a cultural issue, because too few people were involved - only 82 arrests against the entire black community. But the ethnic make-up of the riots is such that black people are vastly overrepresented, while others are vastly underrepresented. Riots also did not take place in areas with a minor black population, even if they were poor. Moreover, the only people with serious charges (GBH to policemen, violent disorder and murder) are black - as you can see on the London pictures.

    Rioters with concealed faces and the obvious mixed race ones were classified as N/A, as you can see, again. If the pictures are too small, I could upload them elsewhere, but you can just as easily look them up on police websites. I find it doubtful that white people concealed their faces more efficiently. I do not think CCTV has any racial quotas as to which people to make identifiable, ensuring a randomised sample. Either way, the N/A category is ~25% in all cases. A half of it are Asian people.

    Lastly, I have little time on my hands, but CCTV photographs are the closest thing to reliable data on ethnicity. Another useful thing are photographs of large mobs, which show the same ethnic make-up as in the report, but those are difficult to find.

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  10. HumStats, in response to your reply above. The difference between these riots and those that occured in Brixton in 1981 is that the Brixton riots were deemed a Black riot after an ENQUIRY had been held and it was determined that the cause of the riots was the disproportionate and indiscriminate use of stop and search powers by the police against Black people ie Black people rioting in response to a Black grievance. There hasn't been an enquiry into the latest riots so although there were people there who were black, there were also people rioting who were not Black so no I will not accept it as a cultural issue. As the police are still trying to identify people and charges are still being made it is premature to state that 'the only people with serious charges are Black. In fact trying to collate and analyse any type of data at this stage is premature. You conclude your findings by saying that 'empirical evidence shows that it is improper to disconnect the August 2011 riots from race and ethnic culture'. Were the Poll Tax riots analysed racially, are football hooligans, when they riot analysed racially? Did you feel the need to analyse the recent student riots? It appears to me that in your world a person can be a person first and a race second if you not Black, but if your Black, people like you want to make them a race first and an individual second. When i have a larger data source available to work with, I'll be producing my own report on the riots.

    ReplyDelete
  11. 'Never trust statistics unless you fiddled the figures yourself' said Churchill. I'd settle for seeing is believing.

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  12. Susie Cro, the age of the arrested was identified and the data were revealed, why not their ethnicity? Likewise, large pictures of mobs seem to be used much more sparsely than in the beginning of the riots. Who knows if there will be a proper enquiry. Right now it is claimed widely by the media that the ethnic make-up of rioters was majority white ('chavs'). The drastic black overrepresentation is somehow ignored, even when it wasn't initially when the rioters were still called 'protesters'.

    I do not feel the need to analyse student and football riots because they gave no grounds for an ethnic analysis judging by visual data or personal experience (I've been next to student protesters and explored the areas of current riots first-hand in their aftermath). Images of the current riots and their locations, as well as feedback, gave rise to the theory that there is a disproportionate involvement of the black community. This theory was confirmed empirically in the report - using very large randomised samples which would only be incorrect if the police withheld over 1000 CCTV images with strictly white rioters.

    If any minority is strongly overrepresented somewhere, it attracts attention. For instance, if the Chinese or flamboyant gays were as overrepresented as black people here, one should have noticed. It can even happen to a majority. Say, white people were seemingly overrepresented at clean-up efforts in ethnically diverse areas. Women are overrepresented at women's study courses.

    Moreover, if the cause of the overrepresentation was purely socioeconomical, then why did other groups with similar or worse conditions not riot? Where are the Tower Hamlets riots, South-West London riots, Glasgow riots, Cardiff riots, etc.? Why did the non-poor areas like Brixton or Croydon riot? By far the best factor that correlates with this is the black community with its distinctive wide-spread anti-establishment sentiment.

    Seawitch Artist, the entire set of images is posted in the article and on the police website. See and count for yourself. Additionally, have a look at pictures of crowds and at pictures/videos of people breaking in (not just looting).

    Surely it is better than just trusting the media, which is well-known to be biased in this respect, or basing your assumptions on intuition alone.

    ReplyDelete
  13. HumStats, I think your reading way too much into the ethnic make up of the rioters. First of all there were protesters and rioters, they're not one and the same in their entirety. Secondly I'm sure your already aware of the extensive use of facebook and mobile phones to spread 'the word'. Birds of a feather flock together ie white people tend to have white friends, black people tend to have black friends. If it was started by one crazy person who happened to be Black then chances are his friends or gang members would also be black, they would then contact their friends who are probably also black. Mix in rival gangs not wanting to be outdone, the people who have multi-ethnic friends, people who heard about the riots and wanted to get involved, opportunists, copy cats and low and behold you have the London Riots. There is no 'Black Community Issue' here to be addressed, people were plain and simply after 'things', it was good old fashioned greed and opportunistic behaviour fuelled by the power of social networking sites and telecommunications.

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  14. Susie Cro, I apologise for the late reply, but I had no chance to write one in the preceding days.

    1) It is very true that the rioters were of a different nature. I would rather divide them into rioters (broke into shops, set buildings and cars aflame, attacked the police) and looters (passers-by who often spontaneously grabbed items from already broken-in shops). The protest in this case took the form of a riot, so protesters are rioters - except for the peaceful ones before the first Tottenham riots. It should be noted that people who are just after things do not burn buildings once looted.

    2) Regardless of the origins of the riots, the media claimed there was proportionate representation of ethnicities. That is simply untrue. As you can see in the report, it is not at all proportionate - it is dominated by black people, who are strongly overrepresented. Why they are strongly overrepresented is another question, which is not to be addressed in the report.

    3) [Speculative] If a black person starts a riot, invites their chiefly black friends who accept the invitation, and rival black gangs copy this with sporadic activity from other ethnicities - the issue seems to concern the black community (particularly young mostly unemployed black men). How it should be addressed and on what issues in particular is yet another question. Perhaps these issues which you point out would make sense: too many violent gangs, mistrust of the establishment, lack of integration (most friends are black). I doubt that black people are any more greedy or are more adept at using social networking than, say, South Asian people. It makes little sense to blame unfocused things like consumerism or indecency when dealing with these riots.

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  15. I would like to point out that it keeps being said that there were "No riots occurred in areas that were far away from large concentrations of black population.", yet it appears from your overlay at the beginning that there were at least a few, and the areas that have the most heavy populace of African/Carribean individuals have little to no riots at all. as well as the fact that the address of the arrested almost always fall within area's that are closer to equal mixes of white/black.
    I find it terribly unsettling that someone with the thought and ability to make an entire map overlay would simply neglect the facts that they worked so hard to bring together.
    Remember that as long as you look hard, you'll always find what you want. and it appears you want to find someone to point the finger at. Maybe there isn't someone.

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  16. College Cooks, there are several points to be addressed here:
    1) The correlation established by maps is strong, but it is theoretical. They do not say that every black area rioted, merely that black areas have a much higher chance of doing so. Observe the distribution of non-black areas, did a significant percentage of them riot? What about the black areas?

    2) The theoretical argument established by maps might have been disproved by the empirical CCTV part. Perhaps those were whites or Asians from black areas? But instead it is confirmed.

    3) It is untrue that the areas with the most heavy populace of African/Caribbean individuals had no riots. Look at the list of boroughs in 3. There are two significant black areas that were not covered with riots: Brent (north-west) and Dagenham. Dagenham experienced some of the most brutal riots nearby, in Barking (they are part of the same borough). As for Brent, following the first major riots in Tottenham, it was heavily covered by police even prior to riots in Brixton. These have already been addressed.

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  17. Superb quality research, it really highlights how the mainstream media were spinning the riots using manipulative tactics to upkeep the illusion of equality - we are all the same, and we are all responsible for rioting.

    Clearly, the facts show otherwise. After all, the riots erupted because of the shooting of an armed Black gangster in Tottenham – Mark Duggan.

    It is understandable why the establishment scrambled desperately to prop-up the wobbling fiction that multiculturalism is strength. It is not. - Multiculturalism is designed to weaken an otherwise unified nation with strong unity and patriotism, so it may suffer under tactics of divide and rule.

    To understand who would benefit from a crippled and divided Broken Britain, we must look at the keenness of Jewish influence pressing for and succeeding to open national borders to mass immigration. Not only in Broken Britain, but France, America, Sweden, Germany, Australia, practically all Western Nations.

    What are they trying to achieve?...

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  18. So Humstat now some more detailed figures are out did you call it right do you think?

    http://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/after_the_looting#c116513

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  19. Ethny, the figures seem to correspond to my CCTV data. The percentage is roughly as expected for London and Birmingham (55% black against my estimation of 50%, 41% black against my 45%). The Manchester riots turned out more white than expected (74% instead of 58%). Data were scarce on Nottingham riots, but it seems now the percentage of British Africans was the highest there (59%). Unfortunately, the report offers no data on Bristol - it doesn't fit into "other".

    It should be noted that many defendants in London, 16%, refused to state their ethnicity. 9% are Asian or other. So the N/A segment is the same as with my CCTV estimation.

    Thank you for the link, I will compose a follow-up using the new data within a couple of days. I am short on time right now, so it will be a less detailed one. Here is the relevant table, just in case: http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/statistics-and-data/mojstats/disturbances-stats-bulletin-tables-241011.xls

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  20. That would be very interesting to see Hum Stats. Apologies for the lack of courtesy in responding have been tangled up with the usual frenetic nature of life.

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  21. Nice post. I was checking continuously this blog and I am impressed! Extremely useful information specifically the last part :) christmas cash advance

    ReplyDelete
  22. I find this study to be far too deterministic where race is concerned. Although you make a conscious effort to avoid suggesting causality in you write-up, i believe that a failure to understand the limitations of this data is to attempt to pull a daily mail style 'wool over the eyes ' trick on the reader.
    Despite claiming to let the statistics speak for themselves, i feel that this report has cherry picked the sources of data that support its point the most. I don't understand how any conclusions can be drawn from a page of cctv shots displaying larger proportions of black youths can support your argument any further. If you wanted to use this to support your argument then show the entire collection of cctv images and not just the one which happened to contain larger proportions of black suspects.
    I feel like the underlying claim of this article is to present a 'objective' view to the reader and allow them to make up there mind. There is nothing objective about this study and it is frankly irresponsible to expose people to an article that claims to just present facts, when the more latent message is to focus on convincing the reader using stats from dubious sources, that the cause of these riots lies somewhere in the black race. I think the values of humstats are clear to all to see here.
    I think humstats is showing a clear sense of injustice regarding the media coverage of the event. Of course the media are going to cover it using stylized facts and persuade their readers using misleading images and articles. Is that any different to before?? However for somebody using numbers and stats to make an argument, to allow there own values and motivations to mislead people is wrong.
    Apart from the undoubted involvement of race as a factor which was involved in the original Mark Duggan incident, I fail to see why race has to be such a important variable in understand the riots. The causes of the riots could could from a whole range of complex variables and causes. It is not acceptable to reduce the explanation into one factor. Statistics are designed to test our theories of society, but this does not mean we should remove the complexity and intricacy of what is being studied. We may never fully be able to explain the riots and making rash generalizations and assumptions based on 'facts' is not the way forward

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  23. Extremely interesting, plus the benefits absolutely are the kind of to generate this marketing squirm. The simple truth is, simply with a reputable examination in the riots could we start off discovering actual answers. Of course some thing is usually angering the particular black color community within London--black market leaders ought to be at the forefront of figuring out the reason that is the situation. My personal desire is ideal for everyone being fewer indignant, irrespective of his or her contest.

    http://fashoionstyles.com/
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    ReplyDelete
  24. How strange,the BBC and many other media outlets have done their own analysis's, and had arrived to the similar culminations with one another. Of Which, I must add, are completely verified, and confute your apparent 'statistics' as inadequate conjecture. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15426720.
    As for myself, yes, ill admit a large number of the black youth are defective. Rationally thinking, it is most obviously a modern phenomenon, and does not encompass, nor correlate black people homogeneously with violence, as to the extent of your apocryphal allegations. One of the many negatively contributing factors I would say should be dealt with accordingly in poorer black communities is benefits. When they were introduced, it was decorous. Alas, now with generations of families inherit their dependence on benefits, it's no wonder why so many of us stay apparently unemployed, and under educated. Instead we are appeased with unnecessary privileges, demeaning our racial reputation as synonymous with the imprudent racial stereotypes.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Nelio, the faulty analyses by BBC and some others have been addressed in the follow-up: http://humstats.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html

    For example, they limit their opinion on the unrepresentative racial make-up to this: "In some areas - such as Salford - this partially matched the ethnicity of the general population, in others - such as Nottingham - it was not representative of the general population". But Salford is the only instance in the country where that is the case, and it accounts for just 3% of arrested rioters. In every single London riot black Britons accounted for over 50% arrested, sometimes up to 82% (as in one of the largest riots in Lambeth).

    The statistics provided in this post are entirely verifiable: look at the linked police websites. Moreover, the racial make-up found with this method corresponds to police data (see the linked article).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. White is an artificial and subjective American concept. I would like to see how many of 'White' rioters, were Eastern Euopeans.

      English should be the ethncity reported by the media http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_people.

      How do we differentiate for instance between the Polish community and the English community in England?

      Officially they are both white.

      Britain needs to adopt Dutch style ethnicity data. Where there instead of white it says simply English or Ethnic English, Ethnic Welsh, Ethnic Polish.

      The English have been brainwashed and robbed of there own ethnicity and reduced to a mere colour.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Netherlands#Recent_developments

      When you talk about ethnic tensions in Bosnia for instance, nodoby says the white serbs and black Croats, it goes without saysing that they are white ethnic groups.

      Well ofourse they don't have large non European immigrant populations such as in Western Europe, but the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia do, and yet they are still able to have their own native ethnicity. such as ethnic Dutch, Ethnic Norwegian, Not white Ducth or white Norwegian. yet we have been brainwashed into thinking of ourselves as merely 'White' as if there is no such thing as an English or a British ethnicty and never has been.

      Delete
  26. O/T

    A reminder about the immigration restriction petition in the UK. Please vote! No to 70 million.

    Its a very mild proposition, so mild that in theory no one could disagree with. It only needs 100,000 signatures to be debated in parliament and has gone well past that now but the more signatures, the louder the message.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I actually find this very disturbing. The assumption that rioting only happens within black communities is in its self a myth. England has a history of rioting that goes back long before black communities were here, or else why would we have riot acts that date back to the 1700's.
    Reports since the 2011 riots argue that infact Duggan was not 'armed' he was believed to be armed, having a gun in his vehicle that was not on his person. I don't agree he should of had a gun in the first place, However, since the gun was not on his person, he was not armed.
    The protesters regards Duggans Death were just that, protesters, not rioters, is there any proof to state that any of those part-taking in peaceful protest were involved in rioting, or is that speculation?
    With respect regards publicised police pictures and cctv footage depitcting rioters, anyone who has even the slightest understanding of the weaknesses and strength this type of statistical 'evidence' will know that it is at the discretion of the police as to which footage is released to the public. Further, such footage whilst some may show actual criminal activity, for the most part, how do you prove that every one in the pictures is a rioter, how do you define between 'onlooker' residents stepping outside of their homes to see what was happening on their streets, 'rioter' or commumnity leaders making a stand to protect their community?.
    I ask this as a responsible citizen who took to the streets of Liverpool, alongside many in my community in order to make sure our area was protected from rioters, we too could of been portrayed as rioters on cctv and film, even though we were liasing with police on a daily basis. My point being, if we were making a stand against rioters in Liverpool, it is reasonable to summise that others would be doing the same in cities accross the country, thus numbers of people on the streets caught on cctv or camera can not totally be representative of who was or was not rioting.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Firstly, I grew up on Broad Water Farm with Mark Duggan and his younger brother Marlon, his older brother Chris and his friend Jamie. All of the aforementioned are MIXED RACE, they have a black parent and a white parent. We (except Jamie) went to Northumberland Park secondary school, Jamie went to White Heat Lane secondary school. Chris was older and seemed ok. Mark, Marlon and Jamie were scum. All three plus a few more beat me up so badly when i was 11 years old (Marlon was 12 the rest were older) that my mum did not recognize me when I got home (Chris stopped them). They did it because I was white. They went on to be involved in all manner of criminal activity, I have heard that Mark was responsible for two murders of rival drug dealers - maybe thats why he was shot and killed by the police (which is not ok, but lets acknowledge that when someone lives by the sword they die by the sword).

    I am now a youth worker, because I got so tired of seeing young black lives extinguished by stupid and cowardly violence perpetrated mainly by other young black people.

    Lets at least acknowledge that Black Britain has a serious problem with gun crime and teenage pregnancy. It is not racist to acknowledge this FACT in an effort to save the lives of our young black people. The black community is not the only poor community in britain and is more successful than other poor communities at crossing the class divide. It still has a disproportionately high incidence of gun crime (around 70% each year), violent crime and teenage pregnancy. All three are debilitating to black britain. It is important at this point to clarify that the VAST MAJORITY of black britain have never seen a gun.

    Police stop and searches being higher within black communities may well be racist, but are perfectly legitimate based on the stats. Tell the grieved mother of a murdered young black girl that taking knives and guns off the streets of hackney is a bad thing.

    The general debate (led by the media) makes a critical mistake when it fails to separate race and class - the white middle and upper classes 'dilute' the stats for white britain, often making us appear better than we are - under achievement in education being a great example of this.

    What we really need to understand is why are poor young white, asian and other people by and large fighting and living to tell the tale but young young black people are shooting each other?

    The reason is because in their lack of black british identity (which is understandable) black britain has embraced black american culture with a passion. The marketing and brainwashing power of hip hop and the black male stereotype (invented to make white men hate black men) has proven influential on white populations and overwhelming to black populations. Can you believe that there are gangs in the South African Townships (as third world as it gets) who look up to and model themselves on black american street gangs? This is why young black brits pick up guns and young Indian brits do not by and large. This is the factor that separates black britain from other poor and non white communities.

    As an end note, I love living in a multi color, multi racial, multi religious, multi ethnic society where it is perfectly legal to be gay (I am straight) (as they come), but multi-culturalism is used by governments to keep a countries poorer population divided and immersed in never ending infighting and race debates being reawakened when it suits the powers that be. Many of the most prominent voices (mainly black being as our race debate in the UK completely forgets our other ethnic minorities) in Britain's race debate make a lot of money off of it, and fail to realize that they as much as anyone else keep POOR people down.

    WillB0ne

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WillBone you are so right. I am a middle aged white woman and my husband is a middle aged black Jamaican man. We live in East London. We see exactly what you describe going on around us every day.

      Until everybody - black, white and 'other' - understands and recognises this things will not improve.

      I knew of Mark Duggan only by reputation via some of the younger members of my husbands family and they thought it was hilarious and ridiculous that he briefly became an urban martyr.

      The only thing that is different in our area is that the Indian/Bangladeshi/Pakistani gangs ARE following this american black culture and they are beginning to believe that guns are a great status symbol.

      Excellent post. Should be required reading for everyone.

      Delete
  29. What I don't like about this post is that you're trying to draw conclusions from the maps based purely on your subjective judgement about what looks like a good correlation. You need to do better than that.

    There are all manner of statistical methods for quantifying the relationship between multiple variables. You need to learn them and apply them. It's not (that) hard.

    ReplyDelete
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